STAT GEEK TIME
Analyzing Logan Wetzel's State Record Mile
by Jeff Hollobaugh
STATE GEEK TIME! Yes, I just did the micro-analysis on Logan Wetzel's mile performance. Normally, the timers have an FAT camera at the 1500m mark. This time, Roger Jennings (the head timer) tells me organizers asked that the camera be at the mile mark for the later Jenny Simpson 2M American record, so that wasn't available. Also, the FAT splits you will find on the official results were all taken from the finish line, which means they were for 209.34m, 409.34m, etc... generally meaningless numbers.
So all the stats I generated were from spending a lot of time with the video, which luckily had an accurate time clock running in the corner. Logan's quarter mile splits: (440s: 61.7, 63.8 [2:05.5], 63.9 [3:09.4], 59.4) Halves: 2:05.5/2:03.3. He gets credit for a tie of the 1500m record at 3:54.0, though an FAT time would probably have given him the record. This is what stat geeks call an "at least" record. In other words, a record is 'at least' X time for 'at least' X distance. The time or distance can't be short, but being long is not a statistical issue. Because of the bad camera angles for the 1500m, I can say with 100% certainty that Logan split at least 3:54.0, though it was probably faster.
Luckily his 1600m split is a clear 4:07.3, breaking Fisher's record there by 0.9.
How does this all compare to Fisher's oversized 4:07.29? Apples and oranges, making any true comparison difficult. However, I think we'll have a better idea once we see the two race again at either the MITS finals or the New Balance Nationals. One thing's for sure--with talent like Wetzel and Brazier around, Fisher will not be able to easily cruise through any in-state match-ups. The middle distance scene in Michigan is a true bonanza for track fans.